2026年资本市场展望——待到山花烂漫时｜资本市场

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the capital market in 2026 will largely depend on investors' expectations regarding medium- to long-term fundamentals, with a focus on China's role in providing global public goods and building a modern industrial system domestically [3]. Group 1: Characteristics of a Financial Power - A strong and confident approach to opening up is essential for China's capital market to evolve into a financial power, supported by the country's rising global position and initiatives like the Belt and Road [5]. - The stock market's equity risk premium in China is significantly higher than in the U.S., indicating a need for improved market confidence and a potential for valuation adjustments [5][6]. - The historical valuation comparisons may become less relevant as the market evolves, suggesting that simplistic analyses may not capture the future dynamics [6]. Group 2: Market Resilience and Shareholder Returns - The capital market must maintain resilience and reduce volatility to attract global investors, with mechanisms in place to stabilize market sentiment during uncertainties [7][8]. - High dividend payouts from state-owned enterprises are seen as a positive shift in corporate governance, enhancing shareholder returns and attracting long-term capital [8]. - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 index remains attractive compared to the ten-year government bond yield, indicating a solid foundation for patient capital [8]. Group 3: Future Pricing and Market Dynamics - The decline in equity risk premium will depend on China's ability to convert its national and cultural influence into sustainable pricing power within global supply chains [9]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to global value added is projected to be significant, with a potential increase in competitive advantages in key areas [9]. - The focus should be on creating a sustainable profit ecosystem rather than relying on excessive competition, which could enhance overall market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Capital Market Pricing and Future Industries - The capital market needs to develop a pricing mechanism for future industries, moving beyond traditional valuation methods that do not align with the potential of innovative companies [11]. - The ability to price future industries effectively will contribute to a reduction in equity risk premiums, reflecting a more mature market [11]. Group 5: Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - The core driver of asset prices in 2026 is expected to be the Producer Price Index (PPI), which, along with housing prices, will influence market dynamics [13]. - A potential rebound in profits for A-share companies is anticipated, with projections indicating a significant increase in net profits for non-financial sectors [14]. - The convergence of improving corporate fundamentals, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence is expected to support a bullish market outlook for A-shares [14].