投资大家谈 | 姜诚：称重是对长期分红的折现值“求积分”，而非“求导”

Core Viewpoint - The article presents an original definition of "weighing" stocks as the integration of the present value of long-term dividends rather than differentiation, emphasizing the importance of understanding the long-term value of stocks [3][5]. Market Overview - The overall market performance this year has been positive, with most stocks rising, but there is significant differentiation based on fundamentals [3]. - Demand in cyclical industries remains weak, while some sectors benefit from positive changes on the supply side, showing signs of profit recovery [3]. - The real estate sector continues to decline in both volume and price, with over half of the companies reporting losses in the first three quarters [3]. - The liquor industry is experiencing structural demand decline, with many companies reporting rare negative profit growth [3]. - Banks have shown positive returns this year, supported by a bottoming interest margin [4]. Investment Strategy - The company has focused on learning about artificial intelligence, semiconductors, the internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which occupy a significant portion of research time [4]. - The investment framework has not changed much, leading to a low turnover rate in the portfolio, indicating a need for deeper understanding of popular sectors before making investment decisions [4][5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation of stocks and the necessity of having a "weight sense" when investing [5]. Long-term Investment Philosophy - The concept of "weighing" stocks is based on the cumulative present value of long-term dividends, which is difficult to quantify but essential for investment decisions [5][6]. - The article contrasts two investment philosophies: "differentiation," which relies on elasticity, and "integration," which requires the power of time [5]. - The unpredictability of future dividend curves poses challenges for long-term investment, highlighting the need for a cautious approach [6]. Performance Reflection - The company has outperformed the CSI 300 Total Return Index for four years, underperformed for two years, and remained flat for one year over the past seven years [8]. - The goal is not to outperform the index annually but to achieve better returns over a full market cycle with lower volatility [8].