新能源重卡将迎新一轮销量爆发！这些利好因素要重点关注 | 头条

Core Viewpoint - The commercial vehicle market is undergoing a significant transformation towards electrification, with a notable acceleration since the second half of 2024, particularly in the heavy-duty and light-duty truck segments [1][3]. Group 1: Electrification Trends - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has increased dramatically, from 10.6% in 2024 to 25.2% in the first ten months of 2025, marking a growth of nearly 6 percentage points [3][9]. - Monthly data shows that the penetration rate exceeded 30% for three consecutive months in August, September, and October 2025, driven by policies promoting vehicle replacement and upgrades [6][9]. - In terms of vehicle types, light commercial vehicles have the highest penetration rate at 63.2%, followed by medium and large buses at 53.1%, and heavy-duty and light-duty trucks at approximately 25% each [8][9]. Group 2: Sales Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, total sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 725,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.1% [9]. - Heavy-duty trucks saw a remarkable sales increase of 178.3%, totaling 157,000 units, while light-duty trucks sold 217,000 units, reflecting a 60.3% increase [9][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The electrification of heavy-duty and light-duty trucks is particularly noteworthy due to their large market size, with heavy-duty truck sales projected at around 1 million units and light-duty truck sales at approximately 2 million units in 2025 [8][9]. - The transition to electric vehicles is influenced by the expansion of transportation scenarios, with heavy-duty trucks moving from closed environments to short-distance open scenarios, and eventually to long-distance routes [14][16]. Group 4: Policy Support - Key factors driving the increase in penetration rates include substantial subsidy policies, with new energy vehicle subsidies being 40% to 75% higher than those for fuel or natural gas vehicles [21][22]. - The development of the industry itself, including decreasing electric vehicle prices and flexible pricing strategies, has made new energy commercial vehicles more economically viable compared to traditional fuel vehicles [23][25]. - Changes in the supply-demand relationship in the transportation market have also favored electric vehicles, as they offer better overall efficiency in suitable scenarios [25][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Future policies are expected to support the electrification of commercial vehicles, including the integration of transportation and energy sectors, industrial environmental regulations, and comprehensive electrification in public sectors [20][27]. - The ongoing promotion of electric vehicles in various regions, such as the establishment of trial cities for electric heavy-duty trucks, is anticipated to accelerate the transition to electrification in the commercial vehicle market [29].