Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, emphasizing the need for strengthened coordination, structural optimization, and deepened reforms in the context of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5]. Group 1: In-depth Topics - The fiscal and monetary policy in 2026 is expected to enhance coordination and optimize structure, focusing on deepening reforms [5]. - The combination of "expansive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy" in Japan may trigger a reversal in carry trade, highlighting the need to be cautious about the divergence and potential shifts in monetary policy between the US and Japan [5]. Group 2: Data Commentary - The November PMI showed a limited rebound, primarily influenced by high inventory levels and the fading effects of holidays [9]. - In the US, September retail sales were weaker than expected, leading to a significant increase in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold rising by 3.4% to $4223.9 per ounce [9].
申万宏观·周度研究成果（11.29-12.5）
赵伟宏观探索·2025-12-06 16:04