不只是降息？前纽约联储专家：鲍威尔下周三或宣布450亿美元购债计划

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 10, where a significant expansion of the balance sheet is anticipated alongside a widely expected 25 basis point interest rate cut [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - Mark Cabana, a strategist from Bank of America, predicts that the Federal Reserve will announce a plan to purchase $45 billion in Treasury bills monthly starting January 2026, aimed at injecting liquidity into the system to prevent a spike in repo market rates [1][5]. - Cabana highlights that the current level of money market rates indicates that bank reserves are no longer "ample," necessitating the Fed to restart Treasury purchases to fill the liquidity gap [1][5]. - UBS also forecasts that the Fed will begin purchasing approximately $40 billion in Treasury bills monthly in early 2026 to stabilize short-term interest rates [1][5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Signals - The article notes that the repo market has shown signs of tightening, with overnight reference rates frequently breaching the upper limit of the Fed's policy rate corridor, indicating a shift from "ample" to "adequate" reserves in the banking system [6][7]. - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest a sense of urgency regarding the need for action, with expectations of reaching adequate reserve levels soon [7]. Group 3: Upcoming Changes and Implications - The potential policy adjustments coincide with a critical leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, as Jerome Powell's term nears its end and Kevin Hassett is viewed as a strong candidate for the next chair [3][8]. - In addition to long-term bond purchasing plans, Bank of America anticipates the Fed will announce term repo operations lasting 1-2 weeks to manage year-end funding volatility [8][10]. - UBS supports the view of a return to balance sheet expansion, emphasizing that purchasing Treasury bills can help match the average duration of the Treasury market [10].