中金：流动性的新变化

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of October, investor risk appetite has decreased, leading to pressure on global risk assets, with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng Tech experiencing maximum declines of 5.1%, 7.3%, and 12.6% respectively. This is attributed to concerns over the AI bubble, tight liquidity in the repurchase market, and fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Liquidity - The current market, particularly for liquidity-sensitive tech stocks, requires either breakthroughs in AI industry trends or significant improvements in liquidity for any upward movement [4]. - A series of events affecting liquidity is anticipated in the coming month, including the FOMC meeting on December 11, where an 88% probability of a rate cut is priced in, but the market will be attentive to any hawkish statements or discussions about restarting balance sheet expansion [4][5]. - The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on December 19 is also a concern, as it may echo last year's liquidity "storm" [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The expectation for a December rate cut is well established, with the focus on the dot plot and statements from the Fed. A return to neutral rates may require three cuts [5][7]. - Recent data indicates a need for rate cuts due to high current rates suppressing traditional demand, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in contraction for eight consecutive months and a significant drop in consumer confidence [7][11]. - The Fed's ability to cut rates is supported by recent inflation data, which suggests that tariff impacts on inflation are less significant than previously feared, with consumer exposure to tariffs at only 11% [13][15]. Group 3: New Fed Chair Nomination - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair is critical, with Kevin Hassett being the frontrunner. His potential policies may lean towards more dovish stances while maintaining some restraint to preserve the Fed's independence [20][21]. - If Hassett is appointed, he may advocate for more aggressive rate cuts than currently anticipated, which could stimulate the economy but also raise concerns about the Fed's independence [27][28]. - The market is closely monitoring how the new chair will balance the need for rate cuts with the preservation of the Fed's autonomy, as excessive dovishness could lead to fears of political influence over monetary policy [20][27]. Group 4: Market Implications - The potential for the Fed to restart balance sheet expansion could significantly enhance market liquidity and support financial assets. The cessation of balance sheet reduction and the potential for further expansion are expected to improve liquidity conditions [29][30]. - The overall financial liquidity in the U.S. is projected to expand by 7%-14% in 2026, which is likely to have a positive correlation with U.S. equities [37][41]. - The anticipated actions of the Fed and the new chair could lead to fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, with short-term pressures expected but a long-term recovery likely if independence is maintained [54][55].