【策略】国内外利好共振，市场有所回暖——策略周专题（2025年12月第1期）（张宇生/王国兴）

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound this week, driven by an increase in market risk appetite, with major indices mostly rising. The ChiNext Index performed the best with a gain of 1.9%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index was the worst performer, down 0.1% [4] - The valuation of the Wind All A Index is currently at the 85.7th percentile since 2010 [4] Industry Performance - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and defense exhibited relatively strong gains, with increases of 5.3%, 3.7%, and 2.8% respectively. Conversely, industries like media, real estate, and beauty care lagged behind, with declines of -3.9%, -2.2%, and -2.0% respectively [4] Important Events - The establishment of a Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration marks a significant step for China's commercial space industry, indicating the introduction of dedicated regulatory oversight [5] - The recent release of China's manufacturing PMI for November was 49.2, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the U.S. ADP employment data showed a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs, reinforcing expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] Market Sentiment - The market is still in a bull phase, but may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the short term. The recent ADP employment data has heightened expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, contributing to a global market recovery that positively impacts the A-share market [6] - Investors are increasingly optimistic about upcoming policy changes as the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, which has also contributed to the market's rebound [6] Investment Strategy - In the short term, the focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while in the medium term, attention should shift to TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors. During periods of market fluctuation, previously lagging sectors may perform better, particularly high-dividend and consumer stocks [6]