车fans社群话题：如何看待2026年的汽车政策与行情？

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is transitioning from a policy-driven phase to a more competitive environment focused on existing market share, with significant changes in subsidies and tax policies expected by 2026 [2][3]. Policy Changes - Key adjustments in policies include the reduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction, with a maximum rebate of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [2]. - The "trade-in" subsidy is likely to continue but will decrease from 20,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan, leading to increased consumer costs [2]. - UBS estimates that consumers will need to spend an additional 15,000 yuan for a new energy vehicle priced at 300,000 yuan due to these policy changes [2]. Market Behavior - The tightening of subsidies has created a cautious consumer sentiment, with some opting to purchase vehicles early to avoid future policy changes, although this has not resulted in a significant surge in sales [2]. - The market is expected to experience a structural shift where competition will focus on technology, product quality, brand, and service rather than just price [3]. Price Trends - The ongoing price war is evolving into a scenario of "ice and fire," where companies with genuine competitive advantages will thrive in a saturated market [3]. - The average transaction price of new cars is expected to rise due to a decrease in the sales of low-priced models, as many manufacturers are moving away from the sub-50,000 yuan market [6]. - The introduction of high-spec models, like the Zhiji LS9, is pushing competitors to enhance their offerings, which may lead to a general increase in market prices [7]. Consumer Insights - The expectation is that subsidies will not continue in the same form, and prices are likely to rise due to increasing battery costs and other components [9]. - The overall price increase is not driven by inflation but by structural changes in the market, with a shift towards higher-value vehicles [6][9]. - Consumers may find 2026 to be a better time to purchase high-quality vehicles rather than the cheapest options available [8]. Industry Outlook - The automotive industry is likely to face a period of adjustment following subsidy reductions, similar to experiences in other markets like Germany, where a shift to higher-value vehicles stabilized prices after initial declines [8]. - Companies are expected to adopt more cautious production strategies to avoid overproduction and maintain price stability, moving away from aggressive price competition [7][10].