美国债市现“三十年罕见之分歧”：美联储降息前夜，美长债收益率却“不跌反涨”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields despite the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, indicating a significant divergence in market expectations regarding future interest rates and economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Market Reactions - Since the Federal Reserve began its current rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, the benchmark interest rate has been reduced by 1.5 percentage points to a range of 3.75%-4% [1]. - Contrary to traditional market logic, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased by nearly 0.5 percentage points to 4.1%, while the 30-year yield has risen by over 0.8 percentage points [1]. - Market participants are divided in their interpretations of this divergence, with some viewing it as a sign of confidence in avoiding recession, while others see it as a return to pre-2008 financial crisis norms [1][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The article references two previous non-recessionary rate-cutting cycles in 1995 and 1998, where the Fed only cut rates by 75 basis points, resulting in either a decrease or a much smaller increase in the 10-year Treasury yield compared to the current situation [6][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current rise in yields may indicate a return to normalcy in interest rates, moving away from the historically low rates established during the pandemic [8]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns and Market Sentiment - Concerns about inflation and the return of "bond vigilantes" are highlighted, with the term premium rising by nearly one percentage point since the start of the current rate-cutting cycle, indicating increased investor demand for compensation against inflation risks [10][9]. - Some market participants worry that the Fed's decision to cut rates while inflation remains above the 2% target could lead to rapid increases in mortgage rates if the Fed continues its current pace of rate cuts [10]. Group 4: Structural Changes in the Economy - The article discusses a structural shift in the global macroeconomic landscape, comparing the current situation to the "Greenspan conundrum" of the mid-2000s, where long-term yields remained low despite rising short-term rates [12][11]. - It is suggested that the previous "savings glut" has transformed into a "bond supply glut," exerting upward pressure on yields, indicating that long-term rates may not be solely determined by central bank policies [12][13].