“申”度解盘 | 布局春季行情

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the Shanghai Composite Index and the implications of Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on global capital markets, highlighting the importance of market support and resistance levels [1][6][11]. Market Overview - In November 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.60 points, down 1.67% from the end of October 2025, with an average daily trading volume of 806.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% [6][10]. - The highest point for the Shanghai Composite Index in November was 4034.08 points, while the lowest was 3816.58 points, aligning with expectations [9][10]. - The CSI 300 Index remained flat in October, with an average daily trading volume of 463.8 billion yuan, down 26.1% [6][10]. Federal Reserve Influence - The anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly influenced global capital market trends, with market expectations for a rate cut rising to nearly 70% following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams [6][11]. Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index rose to 5.74 at the end of October, indicating a decrease in investor risk appetite, marking a second consecutive month of increase [7][13]. Market Profitability - In November, the number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% decreased to 218, an 8% decline, indicating a return to a more stagnant market environment [7][15]. - The number of stocks with gains over 50% increased, suggesting that while overall profitability is declining, specific sectors may be experiencing stronger performance [7][15]. Trading Volume and Price Relationship - The average daily trading volume fell for the second consecutive month to 1914.7 billion yuan, down 11.5% from October, reflecting a typical correlation between trading volume and market price movements [7][17]. Price Movement Analysis - The current market rally has not yet reached the average growth levels seen in previous major uptrends, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experiencing significant price adjustments [8][19]. - Historical data indicates that the average price increase for stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange during uptrends is approximately 115% over 30 months, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange sees an average increase of 172% over 29 months [8][19]. Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently facing resistance after a downward adjustment in November, having broken below the 60-day moving average, with key support now at the levels established in 2021 [6][21]. - The CSI 300 Index also showed significant adjustments in November, with two downward gaps and a breach of the 60-day moving average, indicating potential challenges ahead [6][24].