【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】保险开门红，春季行情的线索

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies, encouraging long-term investments in specific equity indices and stocks, while highlighting the potential for a significant increase in equity allocation space due to these adjustments [2][3]. Group 1: Risk Factor Adjustments - The risk factors for holding stocks in the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 indices for over three years, as well as for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board for over two years, have been reduced to 90% [3]. - This adjustment is seen as a policy to encourage long-term capital entry into the market, particularly benefiting state-owned insurance companies that have already allocated a high proportion of new premiums to the market [3]. - The reduction in risk factors is expected to release an equity allocation space in the range of hundreds of billions, which is crucial for increasing the equity investment ratio of insurance funds [3]. Group 2: Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is anticipated to be a small-scale rally, potentially characterized by high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the technology sector and cyclical assets [4]. - The market is expected to react to policy layouts starting from mid-December, which may trigger the spring rally, alongside the "insurance opening red" phenomenon [4]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of a rebound in the technology sector as it transitions from a correction phase to a consolidation phase [4]. Group 3: 2026 Market Style and Rhythm - The first half of 2026 is predicted to be a consolidation phase for the "Bull Market 1.0," favoring cyclical and value styles, while the second half is expected to transition into a comprehensive bull market led by technology and advanced manufacturing [5]. - The anticipated improvement in PPI year-on-year in 2026, along with cyclical price increases, positions cyclical assets as foundational for the spring market [5]. - There is a focus on high-dividend opportunities and the potential for a broad rebound in technology stocks, particularly in AI, storage, energy storage, and robotics [5].