本周的美联储决议“剧本”：决议降息，鲍威尔“鹰派讲话”，哈塞特、贝森特“鸽派对冲”？

Core Viewpoint - The market is pricing in a 95% probability of a rate cut in December, diminishing the significance of Fed Chair Powell's hawkish statements as he approaches a "lame duck" status [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - If the market reacts "honestly" to a hawkish rate cut, it could lead to a liquidity reversal, weakening bonds and stocks while strengthening the dollar, putting pressure on tech and growth stocks [2][8] - Conversely, if the market ignores the Fed's hawkish signals, it may be driven by the "Hassett trade," leading to a steepening yield curve and a positive outlook for cyclical stocks, while the dollar may weaken [2][8] Group 2: Policy Coordination and Implications - The market may underestimate the degree of dovish coordination among the Treasury, the Fed, and the White House to achieve the "3-3-3 goal" (3% economic growth, 3% short-term yields, and 10-year Treasury yields in the 3% range) [2][3] - The upcoming appointment of a new Fed Chair, likely Kevin Hassett, is expected to reshape market expectations regarding monetary policy paths through unprecedented coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [3][10] Group 3: Key Figures and Their Roles - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin faces pressure as his fate is closely tied to the Fed's policy direction, with President Trump emphasizing the need for quick action on rate cuts [9][10] - Hassett is seen as a strong candidate for the Fed Chair position, with a commitment to lower rates and a unique ability to translate Trump's economic rhetoric into coherent policy [10][11] Group 4: Potential Risks and Reforms - There are concerns that aggressive rate cuts could lead to a loss of confidence in the Fed's commitment to controlling inflation, potentially resulting in a bond market sell-off [10] - Secretary Mnuchin has called for comprehensive reforms within the Fed, suggesting that future regional Fed presidents should have residency requirements to ensure better representation [11]