空头围猎，泡泡玛特股价大跌

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the declining stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK), which has dropped by 8.86% to HKD 199.60 as of the report's release [2] - Deutsche Bank's latest report indicates that Pop Mart plans to significantly increase the production capacity of its Labubu series from 10 million units in the first half of the year to an average of 50 million units per month by the end of the year. However, this large-scale production may signal a decline in popularity for a brand that relies on unique designs and scarcity [3] - Data shows that since August, the premium for Labubu and other popular IPs in the secondary market has significantly decreased, with hidden variants' premiums shrinking by over 50%. Regular versions 3.0 and 4.0 are now selling below the official retail price on second-hand platforms [3] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that sales of the Labubu series will reach RMB 15.5 billion in 2024, a staggering increase of 41 times year-on-year, but growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025 due to the potential loss of some loyal consumers [3] - Despite concerns about short-term growth and unfavorable factors in the global consumer sector, Morgan Stanley believes that Pop Mart can maintain a net profit margin growth of around 30% due to lower marketing expenses, limited discount strategies, increased online direct sales, and optimized rental structures. The firm has adjusted its 2026 expected price-to-earnings ratio from 32 times to 26 times and revised the target price from HKD 382 to HKD 325 while maintaining an "overweight" rating [3] Group 3 - There is a notable increase in market short-selling sentiment towards Pop Mart, with short-sold shares rising from 1.1106 million shares to 1.6170 million shares since December 2. The short-selling amount has also surged from HKD 241 million to HKD 623 million during the same period [4] - The short-selling data indicates a growing bearish outlook on the stock, reflecting increasing market concerns [4][5]