双焦暴跌近7%，发生了什么？后市怎么看？

Market Trends - On December 8, coking coal and coke prices continued to decline sharply, with coking coal main contract falling below 1100 yuan/ton and coke contract dropping over 6% [1][2] - Since November, coking coal has shifted from a leading performer to a significant underperformer, with a monthly decline of 17% and coke down 11% [1][2] Reasons for Price Drop - The first reason for the decline is the weakening of the spot market, with prices dropping across nearly all coal types and a high auction failure rate of 30-50%, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [10][12] - The second reason is the pressure from futures contracts nearing delivery, particularly the coking coal 2601 contract, which is expected to have a delivery volume of around 200,000 tons, leading to concerns about the profitability of accepting delivery [13][15] - The third reason is the negative feedback from the steel industry, where reduced profits have led to production cuts, thereby decreasing demand for coking coal [16][17] Import Impact - There has been a significant increase in imports of Mongolian coal, with the goal of reaching 100 million tons annually, which has pressured domestic coking coal prices [19][20] - The price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has dropped from 1170 yuan/ton to 988 yuan/ton, a decline of over 15% [20][21] Inventory Levels - Coking coal inventories at washing plants are at 321.40 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16.09 million tons, while coal mine inventories are at 247.01 million tons, up 23.09 million tons [22] - Coking enterprises have inventories of 1009.20 million tons, showing a slight decrease, while steel mills hold 798.27 million tons, reflecting a mixed inventory situation [27] Market Outlook - Analysts from Shenyin Wanguo Futures suggest that the recent decline in coal and coke prices is closely related to increased supply from Mongolia and reduced demand due to seasonal maintenance in steel mills [29] - Jinrui Futures indicates that the downward pressure on prices is expected to continue in the short term due to increased imports and reduced steel production [30] - Zhongxin Jiantou Futures notes that the core factor suppressing coking coal prices is the expectation of a relaxed supply, with domestic production remaining high and imports increasing [33]