政治局会议：实现“十五五”良好开局（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to domestic economic work and international economic struggles, highlighting the importance of policy effectiveness and economic growth [3][12]. Economic Policy Focus - The meeting reiterates the importance of "better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic struggles," reflecting concerns about external uncertainties and internal stability [3][12]. - The phrase "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" replaces "stabilizing through progress," indicating a focus on the quality, efficiency, and sustainability of policies [3][12]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to maintain an expansionary orientation with an anticipated deficit rate around 4%, with slight expansions in special bonds compared to 2025 [3][12]. Economic Growth Targets - The meeting sets a goal for economic growth, aiming for nominal and real GDP growth rates of approximately 4% and 4.4%, respectively, to achieve a doubling of economic output and per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 [4][13]. Policy Changes - New emphasis on "proactive targeting and coordination" in policy deployment, indicating a shift towards more integrated fiscal and monetary policies [4][14]. - The focus on domestic demand is reinforced, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to accelerate [5][14]. Reform and Market Development - The meeting stresses the importance of reform, particularly in advancing the construction of a unified national market, which includes standardizing market regulations and eliminating local protectionism [5][15]. - The focus on "people's livelihood" remains a priority, with policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [6][15]. Consumer and Investment Focus - The meeting highlights the need to increase the household consumption rate, with a specific target to address the gap in per capita service consumption compared to pre-pandemic levels [5][14]. - Investment policies are expected to support new infrastructure projects, particularly in digital infrastructure, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" goals [5][14].