金属周报 | 结构性短缺点燃铜市，降息预期叠加挤仓风险引爆白银

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing bullish sentiment in the copper market driven by expectations of structural shortages in refined copper for the upcoming year, while gold prices remain relatively stable [2][5]. Copper Market Analysis - Last week, copper prices continued their upward trend, with COMEX copper rising by 3.33% and SHFE copper increasing by 6.12% [4]. - The market anticipates a structural shortage of refined copper next year, which has led to heightened market sentiment and trading activity [6][10]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting may introduce macroeconomic headwinds for copper prices, and a short-term price adjustment could be expected, presenting potential buying opportunities [6][10]. - SHFE copper prices approached 93,000 yuan per ton, but downstream consumption has been somewhat suppressed due to high prices [12]. - COMEX copper inventories have increased significantly, with over 430,000 tons recorded, indicating a potential supply adjustment in the market [12]. Precious Metals Market Analysis - Gold prices fell by 0.67% on COMEX, while silver prices rose by 3% last week, reflecting a divergence in performance [4][29]. - Economic data from the U.S. showed weaker-than-expected results, which, combined with dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials, supported high prices for precious metals [8][29]. - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which could impact precious metal prices, particularly if hawkish signals emerge [8][29]. - Long-term trends suggest that gold and silver prices remain in an upward trajectory despite short-term fluctuations [8]. Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventories decreased by approximately 50,000 ounces, while silver inventories increased by about 300,000 ounces last week [45]. - The SPDR gold ETF saw an increase in holdings by 4.8 tons, reaching 1,050 tons, indicating a growing interest in gold investments [50]. - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold increased, suggesting a bullish sentiment among traders [50].