泡泡玛特跌超8%，大摩预测明年Labubu收入增速将显著放缓

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is transitioning from a phase of explosive growth to sustainable growth, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth expected for its Labubu line by 2026, shifting from a single blockbuster to a diversified IP-driven model [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart's overall revenue surged by 245%-250% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by new product launches like Mini Labubu and SP Insomnia Theater, along with revenue recognition from pre-sales in Q2 [2]. - In the Chinese market, revenue grew by 185%-190%, with offline channels increasing by 130%-135% and online channels by 300%-305%. Internationally, revenue rose by 365%-370%, with the Americas seeing a staggering increase of 1265%-1270% [3]. - Despite strong financial results, Pop Mart's stock price has been declining, with significant drops of 8.08% and 9% on October 21 and 23, respectively, indicating investor concerns about the sustainability of revenue growth [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analyst Opinions - Analysts express concerns that the revenue growth for Pop Mart may have peaked, with fears of a potential decline similar to the "boom-bust" cycle experienced by the 1990s toy phenomenon, Beanie Babies [4]. - Morgan Stanley has previously raised Pop Mart's target price multiple times, reflecting optimism about its growth potential, but recently adjusted the target price down from 382 HKD to 325 HKD due to unfavorable trends in the global consumer sector [4][5]. - The shift from reliance on a single blockbuster to a multi-IP strategy is seen as a core advantage, with analysts highlighting the potential of overseas markets and new business ventures like Pop Land theme park and POPOP jewelry [4].