IBM CEO警告：超大规模云厂商的数据中心投资难以盈利

Core Viewpoint - IBM's CEO Arvind Krishna questions the expected returns on the massive investments made by tech giants like Google and Amazon in AI infrastructure, suggesting that such investments are unlikely to yield reasonable returns due to the high costs associated with data centers [2][3]. Investment and Costs - Goldman Sachs estimates that the global data center market currently consumes about 55 gigawatts of power, with only approximately 14% related to AI. This demand is projected to rise to 84 gigawatts by 2027 due to increasing AI needs [2]. - Krishna calculates that building a 1-gigawatt data center requires an investment of about $80 billion. If a company commits to constructing 20 to 30 gigawatts of data centers, the capital expenditure could reach $1.5 trillion, nearly equivalent to Tesla's current market value [2]. - If all major cloud providers expand to around 100 gigawatts of capacity, it would necessitate an investment of approximately $8 trillion, with the required profit scale to cover this expenditure being staggering [2][3]. Profitability Concerns - Krishna emphasizes that $8 trillion in capital expenditure would require around $800 billion in profits just to cover interest payments, making it highly unlikely for such investments to be profitable [3]. - The rapid technological advancements mean that the chips relied upon in data centers quickly become obsolete, further complicating the return on investment [3]. AI Development and Market Trends - Despite the ongoing investment surge, Krishna believes the probability of achieving general artificial intelligence with current technologies is at most 1%. He acknowledges the significant value of this technology, which could unlock trillions of dollars in productivity potential, but asserts that the technological requirements far exceed those of current large language models [5]. - Major cloud providers are accelerating their investments in AI infrastructure, with expected expenditures reaching about $380 billion this year. Alphabet has raised its 2025 capital expenditure forecast from $85 billion to between $91 billion and $93 billion, while Amazon has increased its forecast from $118 billion to $125 billion [5].