驳斥AI泡沫论！瑞银：数据中心毫无降温迹象，上调明年市场增速预期至20-2

Core Viewpoint - UBS's latest report indicates that the global data center equipment market shows no signs of cooling, with significant ongoing capacity expansion and optimistic growth forecasts for the coming years [1][4]. Group 1: Growth Expectations - UBS has raised its mid-term growth expectations for the data center equipment market, predicting a growth rate of 20-25% by 2026, driven by low vacancy rates and high capital expenditures from large-scale cloud providers [2][4]. - The report anticipates a 25-30% growth in market size in 2025, followed by sustained high growth rates of 20-25% in 2026 and 15-20% in 2027, with a stable annual growth rate of 10-15% from 2028 to 2030 [5][6]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Insights - UBS highlights a structural change in the cost of building AI data centers, with costs per megawatt increasing by approximately 20% compared to traditional data centers, primarily due to upgrades in cooling and power infrastructure [8]. - The report notes that the capital expenditure to sales ratio for large cloud providers has more than doubled from 2023, reaching 25-30%, while still being manageable at 75% of the industry's operating cash flow [8][10]. Group 3: Revenue Generation and AI Adoption - UBS estimates that the annual recurring revenue (ARR) from major AI-native applications has reached $17 billion, accounting for about 6-7% of the current SaaS market, indicating a strong early-stage monetization of AI technologies [10]. - The adoption rate of generative AI (GenAI) is experiencing exponential growth, with companies reporting an average revenue increase of 3.6% and cost reduction of 5% over the past year due to AI implementation [10]. Group 4: Technological Changes and Market Dynamics - The shift towards higher power density in data center infrastructure is leading to significant changes, with a trend towards 800V direct current (DC) architecture expected to be widely deployed by late 2028 to early 2029 [13]. - This technological transition is reshaping the competitive landscape, with medium voltage (MV) equipment demand remaining stable while low voltage (LV) AC equipment faces risks of being replaced by higher voltage DC distribution [13].