重提跨周期——政治局会议通稿要点（国金宏观赵宏鹤）

Core Viewpoint - The overall macro policy framework is not expected to change significantly, with the key focus on rhythm and direction [1] Summary by Sections Economic Work and Policy Direction - The December Politburo meeting serves as a precursor to the Central Economic Work Conference, outlining core ideas and priorities for the upcoming year [3] - The meeting emphasizes the need to better coordinate domestic economic work with international trade struggles, indicating that domestic stability will be prioritized during heightened international tensions [3] - The introduction of "developing new quality productivity in a localized manner" and advancing the construction of a unified national market suggests a focus on optimizing local government actions and addressing market competition issues [3] Economic Growth Targets - The Politburo aims for a "good start" to the 14th Five-Year Plan, suggesting a growth target of around 5% for the next year, necessitating the use of existing and new policies to stimulate the economy [3] - A recent announcement of 500 billion yuan in new financial tools is aimed at project investments to kickstart economic activity [3] Macro Policy Implementation - The meeting reiterates the commitment to a more proactive macro policy, maintaining an active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, while hinting at a slight increase in fiscal policy space [4] - The emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" and the integration of existing and new policies indicates a need for careful monitoring of policy implementation based on external conditions [4] Focus on Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is prioritized as the main driver of economic work, with a strong emphasis on improving livelihoods and consumption, aligning with the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session [4] - The goal is to build a strong domestic market to navigate complex external environments, requiring more policy resources directed towards improving living standards and enhancing consumer capacity [4] Key Work Areas for the Coming Year - The meeting outlines eight key work areas, maintaining the order of priorities: domestic demand, technology/industry, reform, and openness, with risk prevention now ranked lower, indicating a reduction in systemic risk challenges [5][6] - Notably, the real estate sector, which previously faced significant scrutiny, is not mentioned in the meeting's discussions, reflecting a shift in focus as its contribution to GDP is projected to decline further [6]