国泰海通｜宏观：内需主导，提质增效——2025年12月政治局会议学习体会

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes a macro policy of "more proactive and effective" while focusing on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with a priority on expanding domestic demand and improving people's livelihoods, awaiting further policy details from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [1][6]. Group 1: Key Features of the Meeting - Domestic demand is prioritized, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote an economy driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth [2][6]. - The macro policy maintains a "more proactive and effective" tone, with a focus on enhancing policy effectiveness. Monetary policy continues to express "moderate easing," while fiscal policy aims for precision between proactivity and sustainability, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2026 and new local special bonds expected to be issued at approximately 4.6 trillion [2][7]. - Despite a temporary reduction in external risks, the emphasis on people's livelihoods remains high, with a commitment to resolving issues such as overdue payments to enterprises and wages for migrant workers [3][8]. Group 2: Specific Deployments for Economic Work in 2026 - In addition to expanding domestic demand, there is an emphasis on "optimizing supply" in tandem, with policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply expected to be implemented [4][9]. - The integration of existing and new policies is highlighted, with approximately 700 billion yuan in policy financial tools and local bond limits expected to support project construction in the first quarter of 2026 [9][10]. - Continuous efforts will be made to address debt resolution and overdue payments, with a focus on mitigating risks in key areas, maintaining a strategy of leveraging central initiatives while controlling new debt at the local level [10].