数据点评 | 出口韧性的“来源”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in exports in November is primarily supported by the easing of short-term supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand. Factors such as the "working day" effect and the reduction of "production rush" impacts contributed to this rebound [3][10][82]. Export Data Analysis - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, significantly up from -1.1% in October, indicating that supply factors played a more crucial role than external demand in recent export fluctuations. The increase in working days and the decline of production rush effects were key contributors to this rebound [2][10][82]. - Exports to emerging economies showed a notable recovery in November, with growth rates for Africa and Latin America rising by 17.1 and 12.8 percentage points to 27.7% and 15%, respectively, despite no significant improvement in demand from these regions [3][21][82]. Commodity Export Trends - The export growth of commodities that experienced significant fluctuations in the previous months showed a marked recovery in November. For instance, food, steel, and automotive parts saw their growth rates rebound by 34, 18.7, and 13.2 percentage points, respectively [4][29][83]. - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer electronics and light industrial products also experienced a notable recovery in November, with consumer electronics exports increasing by 5.1 percentage points to 3.3% [4][83]. Import Data Insights - Imports in November rose by 1.9% year-on-year, with processing trade imports significantly rebounding by 9.2 percentage points to 13.9%, indicating that the easing of supply disruptions positively impacted trade performance [4][37][83]. - Major commodities like crude oil and electromechanical products also showed improvement in import growth rates, with crude oil imports increasing by 8.4 percentage points to 8.1% [4][37][83]. Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions, combined with ongoing improvements in external demand and China's competitive export advantages, is expected to support exports for the remainder of the year. The potential easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. and the continued industrialization in emerging markets may further bolster export opportunities [5][45][84]. - The resilience of machinery manufacturing exports over the past three months suggests that there remains room for improvement in exports, particularly in intermediate and capital goods [5][46][84]. Regular Tracking - November saw a general recovery in both exports and imports, with consumer electronics and light industrial products showing notable increases. The export growth rate for consumer electronics rose by 5.1 percentage points to 3.3%, driven by significant rebounds in mobile phones and LCD display modules [6][68][84]. - Capital goods exports displayed mixed results, with general machinery and medical instruments seeing growth, while automotive parts and integrated circuits also experienced increases in export growth rates [6][59][68].