积极财政政策和宽松货币政策持续：申万期货早间评论-20251209

Group 1: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic approach for 2026, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [1][7] - The meeting highlights the continuation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, aiming to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1][7] - Key strategies include promoting domestic demand, fostering innovation, pushing for reforms, enhancing foreign cooperation, and ensuring coordinated development [1][7] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.833%, with mixed performance in government bonds [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for November stands at 49.2, indicating a slight increase, while exports have grown by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting strong foreign trade resilience [2][9] - The market anticipates policy adjustments following the Central Political Bureau meeting, which may influence bond market dynamics [2][9] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Palm oil exports from Malaysia are expected to decrease by 16.4% in November, while production is forecasted to drop by 4.38%, indicating a potential inventory build-up [3][24] - Copper prices have declined due to tight supply conditions, with smelting profits at breakeven levels, while overall production continues to grow [3][16] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market remains cautious, with various factors influencing price movements across different sectors [3][16][24] Group 4: Financial Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stagnation, with a decrease of 9,000 non-farm jobs in November, raising expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [10] - The stock market is expected to remain volatile ahead of significant policy announcements from both the Federal Reserve and the Central Economic Work Conference in China [8] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards defensive positioning as investors await clearer policy signals [8]