达利欧：未来两年全球经济“岌岌可危”，不要因为AI估值过高就急于退出

Core Viewpoint - Dalio warns that the global economy will face dangers in the next one to two years due to the overlapping cycles of debt, political conflict, and geopolitical tensions [1][3] Group 1: Economic Risks - The global debt burden is beginning to exert pressure on specific market segments, with governments unable to raise taxes or cut welfare, leading to fiscal dilemmas [3] - Political polarization is intensifying, with the rise of left-wing and right-wing populism indicating irreconcilable divisions [3][4] Group 2: AI Bubble Concerns - Dalio acknowledges that the AI sector has entered a bubble phase, though he believes it is not as severe as the 1929 bubble [5] - Investors should not hastily exit AI investments solely due to high valuations but should focus on identifying substantial signals of bubble bursts [5][6] - The catalysts for bubble bursts typically arise from monetary tightening or forced asset sales to meet debt obligations [6] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Attention is drawn to the pressures in venture capital, private equity, and commercial real estate, where low-cost debt is facing challenges due to higher interest rates [7] Group 4: Middle East as an Emerging AI Hub - Dalio compares the rise of certain Middle Eastern countries to Silicon Valley, noting that the region is rapidly becoming a significant global AI center [8][9] - The UAE and neighboring countries are combining vast capital pools with global talent inflows, attracting investment managers and AI innovators [9] - Major projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars are being initiated in cloud computing, data centers, and other AI infrastructure, supported by sovereign wealth capital and global tech partners [9][10]