公募FOF投资发展的终局，将是残酷的“四项全能”

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the evolving landscape of multi-asset investment strategies, highlighting the importance of dynamic asset allocation and risk management in achieving superior returns in the current market environment [4][21][40]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The interviewee, Zeng Hui, advocates for a shift from static to dynamic asset allocation, focusing on timing and risk control to enhance returns and manage drawdowns effectively [8][10][11]. - Zeng Hui's investment framework is based on a "Tai Chi" philosophy, emphasizing the importance of identifying extreme market conditions (overbought and oversold) rather than adhering strictly to mean reversion [12][55]. - The approach includes enhancing four underlying asset classes, particularly commodities and international assets, which are seen as essential for public FOF (Fund of Funds) investments [13][80]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Zeng Hui manages several funds with notable performance, including the Guotai Youxuan Lihang fund, which achieved a return of 52.59% over the past year, ranking first in its category [4][5]. - The Guotai Ruiyue fund, focusing on bonds, reported a return of 4.98%, ranking second in its category, showcasing the effectiveness of Zeng Hui's investment strategies [4][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article discusses the significant changes in the FOF industry, driven by the rise of quantitative strategies and ETFs, which are reshaping traditional investment models [21][22][35]. - Zeng Hui predicts that the future of public FOF will involve a more integrated approach, reducing the layers of management and focusing on dynamic asset allocation to improve investment efficiency [21][35]. - The article highlights the anticipated performance of various asset classes in the coming year, with commodities expected to outperform equities and bonds, particularly gold and silver [99][100][106]. Group 4: Risk Management - Zeng Hui emphasizes the critical role of macro risk management, identifying it as the most significant risk factor in investment, accounting for 40% of the overall risk framework [41][46]. - The investment strategy incorporates a quantitative system to enforce discipline and mitigate human biases, ensuring adherence to risk management protocols [92][97]. - The article outlines the necessity of a robust macroeconomic model that integrates various factors, including fundamental, policy, liquidity, and market sentiment, to guide investment decisions [42][43][46].