达利欧：未来两年全球经济“岌岌可危”，不要因为AI估值过高就急于退出

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy - Dalio warns that the global economy will face dangerous situations in the next one to two years due to the overlapping cycles of debt, political conflict, and geopolitical tensions [1] - He emphasizes that investors should not hastily exit AI investments solely due to high valuations, but rather focus on substantial signals of bubble bursts [2][3] - The current market shows cracks in private equity, venture capital, and refinancing debt areas, with rising global debt burdens applying pressure [1][4] Group 2: Political and Market Dynamics - As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, political conflicts are expected to intensify, exacerbated by a high-interest rate environment and concentrated market leadership [2] - Dalio compares the current AI bubble to the tech bubble of 2000, noting that while it is significant, it is not as severe as the 1929 bubble [2] Group 3: AI Market and Investment Risks - The catalysts for bubble bursts typically arise from monetary tightening or forced asset sales to meet debt obligations [3] - Notable market figures, including Sam Altman and Michael Burry, have raised alarms about the potential AI market bubble collapsing within the next two years [3] Group 4: Middle East as an Emerging AI Hub - Dalio likens the rise of certain Middle Eastern countries to Silicon Valley, highlighting their rapid emergence as influential AI centers [5][6] - The UAE and neighboring countries are attracting investment managers and AI innovators by combining large capital pools with global talent influx [6][10] - The region's transformation is seen as a result of thoughtful national strategies and long-term planning, fostering a vibrant environment for AI and technology [10]