多晶硅“小作文”行情再起，后市怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the polysilicon market, highlighting the establishment of a new company aimed at capacity integration and the shifting dynamics in the futures market due to supply constraints and regulatory changes [4][6]. Market Dynamics - On December 9, the main contract for polysilicon (ps2601) traded strongly above 55,000 yuan/ton, closing at 55,610 yuan, with an increase of over 3% [2]. - A new company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, focusing on strategic cooperation opportunities within the industry [4]. - The recent futures market has transitioned from an "emotion-driven" phase to a "rational return," with a notable "warehouse squeeze" due to a shortage of deliverable physical warehouse receipts [5][6]. Supply and Demand Overview - According to SMM, domestic polysilicon production in November was nearly 120,000 tons, a decrease from October, with expectations for further declines in December due to seasonal factors [10]. - Demand from silicon wafer manufacturers has weakened, with production plans down approximately 15% month-on-month in December, leading to an increase in silicon wafer inventory [10][17]. - As of December 5, polysilicon inventory increased by 600 tons to 294,000 tons, reflecting a slight month-on-month rise [10]. Future Scenarios - Three potential paths for the polysilicon market are outlined: 1. Market Stabilization: A 50% probability of a return to a chaotic phase with price fluctuations as the market digests new information [7]. 2. Bearish Reversal: A 30% probability of a sharp decline if the exchange announces new delivery brands, leading to a sell-off by long positions [8]. 3. Temporary Victory for Bulls: A 20% probability where the market remains tight before delivery, but this victory may be short-lived as long-term bearish sentiments persist [9]. Regulatory Changes - The exchange announced the addition of two new brands for polysilicon futures, which is expected to alleviate concerns over the scarcity of deliverable products and may lead to an increase in warehouse receipts [5][18]. - The market is currently adjusting to these regulatory changes, with expectations of increased warehouse receipts and a shift back to fundamental pricing logic [6][19]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently in a state of cautious optimism, with the potential for price movements to remain within a range of 52,000 to 53,000 yuan/ton, depending on future supply and demand dynamics [19].