欧洲小包税改倒计时：平台谋变，卖家求生

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's decision to eliminate the tax exemption for low-value imports under €150 will significantly impact cross-border platforms and sellers, particularly those relying on low-cost small packages [2][9]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - The EU Council has approved a resolution to end the tax exemption for small packages, which is expected to take effect by 2026, adding a processing fee of approximately €2 per package [2]. - In 2024, an estimated 4.6 billion low-value packages are projected to enter the EU, with 91% originating from China [2]. - This policy mirrors the U.S. decision to cancel T86 earlier this year, which forced platforms like Temu to raise prices, resulting in a significant drop in order volume [2][3]. Group 2: Seller Strategies and Market Reactions - Temu has introduced a semi-managed Y2 model in Europe, allowing sellers to ship directly from domestic locations to overseas warehouses, which is expected to reduce order volume for fully managed services [4]. - Despite the success of the Y2 model in the U.S., European sellers remain cautious, with many still observing the market before making a transition [4][5]. - The complexity of European regulations, such as VAT requirements and compliance with local laws, poses significant challenges for sellers considering the Y2 model [4][5]. Group 3: Logistics Industry Dynamics - Logistics companies that depend on small package direct shipping are facing severe challenges, with a notable decline in order volume impacting their growth plans [6]. - Conversely, overseas warehouse service providers are experiencing increased demand as the new regulations necessitate higher local warehousing and logistics capabilities [6]. - The anticipated rise in local warehousing in Europe is seen as an opportunity for domestic players to expand their logistics operations [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Adjustments - The transition period before the new EU regulations take effect is viewed as a critical time for platforms and sellers to adjust their strategies [10]. - The fragmented nature of the European market complicates compliance and operational strategies, creating potential for gray market activities as sellers seek lower costs and simpler procedures [7][10]. - The overall direction of the EU's policy change is unlikely to reverse, signaling the end of the small package direct shipping model [9].