超57%门店开业两年内倒闭，谁在分食烘焙市场的蛋糕？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting performance of Paris Baguette in international markets versus its struggles in China, reflecting a broader downturn in the Chinese baking industry, characterized by a significant number of store closures and a shift towards home baking [2][4][6]. Group 1: Store Closures and Market Trends - As of November 2025, Paris Baguette had 335 stores in China, a decrease of 15 stores from the end of 2024, with a total of 205 closures over the past four years [4][6]. - The average lifespan of baking stores in China is only 32 months, with over 57% closing within two years of opening. In 2024, 75,000 new stores opened while 82,000 closed, resulting in a closure rate of 25% [6][9]. - Major brands like Bread Talk and Gontran Cherrier have exited the Chinese market, and several others have announced significant store closures due to rising costs and intense competition [6][7][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Baking Companies - 85 Degrees C reported a 14% revenue decline in the first nine months of 2025, with a loss of approximately 46 million RMB in the mainland market [9]. - Yuan Zuo, the first cross-strait baking listed company, saw a revenue drop of 18.62% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profit down 48.28% [9]. - The financial struggles of these companies are attributed to rising costs of key ingredients, which have increased by 30%-50%, and high rental costs in major cities [10]. Group 3: Rise of Home Baking - The home baking market is growing, with a projected global market size of approximately $16.9 billion by 2025, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 5.1% [11]. - Sales of baking appliances have surged, with electric ovens seeing a 16% increase in sales, and stand mixers experiencing a 61% increase in transaction value [11][13]. - Companies like Lihigh Foods are capitalizing on this trend by offering frozen baking products aimed at home consumers, resulting in a 15.73% revenue increase in Q3 2025 [13]. Group 4: Market Structure and Future Outlook - The Chinese baking market is expected to reach 116 billion RMB in 2025, growing by 5.2%, but the market is highly fragmented, with 49.3% of brands having between 5-30 stores [15]. - Traditional baking stores are losing market share to tea drinks, supermarkets, and home baking, with projections indicating a decline in traditional store sales from 77% to 71% by 2030 [15]. - Analysts suggest that brands lacking core competitiveness and effective cost control will be most vulnerable in the current market environment [15].