所有商品都将“像黄金一样”！美银Hartnett：做多大宗商品是明年最佳“火热交易”

Group 1 - The core view is that by 2026, going long on commodities will be the best trading theme, with all commodity price trends expected to rise similarly to gold [2][3] - The shift in global economic policy from "monetary easing + fiscal tightening" to "fiscal easing + de-globalization" post-pandemic is a key factor driving this outlook [2][6] - The report highlights that the current environment favors commodities, particularly oil and energy, as the best contrarian investment opportunity due to anticipated economic policies and geopolitical changes [3][9] Group 2 - The report indicates that the structural opportunity for commodities arises from the paradigm shift in global economic policies, which has changed the performance dynamics between bonds and commodities [6][11] - Latin American stock markets have shown significant growth, up 56% year-to-date, indicating a broader market trend towards natural resources and metals [7][9] - Historical patterns suggest that bond markets are cautious about "hot" economic policies, with a tendency for yields to rise following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair [10][13] Group 3 - The report notes that while commodities are favored, there is caution regarding the bond market, particularly with the potential for rising yields due to economic interventions and labor market weaknesses [11][17] - The stock market is experiencing a complex differentiation, with liquidity peaks corresponding to credit spread lows, indicating a shift in investment focus towards AI capital expenditures [19][21] - Specific sectors such as cyclical stocks related to "Main Street" (housing, retail, transportation) are viewed as having the best relative upside potential, driven by expected economic stimulus policies [22]