中金 | 钨的新时代之三：四问钨价，牛市未央

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten price has experienced a significant increase, reaching 351,000 yuan/ton by December 5, 2025, marking a year-to-date increase of 147% [2][4]. The company maintains a bullish outlook on the tungsten price market. Group 1: Price Transmission to Downstream - The transmission of tungsten prices to APT and tungsten powder has been smooth, with processing fees significantly increasing compared to the beginning of the year [4][10]. - Downstream companies have successfully passed on price increases through product pricing and new product launches, leading to continuous improvement in gross margins [4][10]. - APT and tungsten powder prices have risen to 510,500 yuan/ton and 815 yuan/kg respectively, with year-to-date increases of 143% and 159% [10][12]. Group 2: Inventory Situation in the Industry Chain - Producer inventories have been reduced to historically low levels, with APT and tungsten carbide producer inventories at 800 tons and 1,027 tons, reflecting decreases of 31% and 36% respectively [21][22]. - Downstream enterprises have shown no significant accumulation of raw material inventories, indicating a strong support for replenishment demand in the future [26][28]. Group 3: Export Policy Impact - The export policy implemented in February has had a limited impact on the total export volume of tungsten products, with a shift towards higher value-added products [29][32]. - The export volume of tungsten products in the first ten months of 2025 totaled 15,792 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2% [32][33]. - The proportion of affected tungsten products in exports has decreased significantly, with ammonium paratungstate and non-rolled tungsten products showing notable growth in export volume [32][33]. Group 4: Global Supply Dynamics - The global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight due to declining ore grades and stricter regulations in domestic production [5][37]. - The only significant overseas supply increase is anticipated from Kazakhstan, while other regions face slow development [5][37]. - The strategic value of tungsten is becoming increasingly prominent, leading to heightened interest and investment in tungsten resources globally [51][52]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company expects tungsten prices to continue to run strong in the short term, supported by low inventory levels and a positive price transmission effect [55]. - Long-term projections indicate a persistent supply-demand gap, with global tungsten production expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.49% from 2023 to 2028 [56][58]. - The strategic value of tungsten is expected to drive continued investment and development in the industry, particularly in high-end applications [58].