中金 | 储能观市系列（1）：政策迎风期，中国独立储能建设加速

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese large-scale energy storage industry is transitioning from "policy-driven" to "market-driven," with clearer business models and diversified application scenarios, entering a new phase of large-scale and high-quality development [2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Data - The domestic new energy storage bidding scale reached 205.30 GWh from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with central and state-owned enterprises' procurement scale increasing by 61% [4]. - The supply side of leading battery manufacturers is nearing full capacity, and the tight supply-demand situation is expected to continue until the second quarter of 2026 [4]. - The theoretical installation space for independent energy storage is estimated to be around 158 GW/634 GWh for 2026-2027, supported by declining electricity costs on the generation side [5]. Group 2: Business Model Evolution - Before the "Document 136," the value of energy storage was primarily derived from "obtaining renewable energy project permits," with low utilization rates [6]. - After the "Document 136," independent energy storage can realize its true value through "peak-valley price arbitrage + capacity market + ancillary services," with internal rates of return (IRR) exceeding 10% in regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [4][5]. - The capacity price policy has led to a short-term rush for installations, with independent energy storage expected to benefit from this policy window [5]. Group 3: Capacity Compensation Mechanism - The capacity compensation mechanism is gradually replacing the previous capacity leasing price, with provinces like Inner Mongolia and Gansu already implementing compensation standards [15]. - The compensation standards vary, with Gansu setting a preliminary compensation of 330 yuan/kW·year, while Inner Mongolia compensates based on actual discharge [15]. - The establishment of a capacity compensation mechanism aims to create stable price signals to guide investment in flexible resources like energy storage [15]. Group 4: Auxiliary Services Market - The auxiliary services market is evolving from single peak and frequency regulation to a more diversified and market-oriented approach [18]. - Independent energy storage currently participates mainly in frequency regulation services, with significant compensation in provinces like Guangdong and Shanxi [20]. - As the auxiliary services market develops, energy storage is expected to expand its participation to include backup and ramping services, providing additional revenue streams [20]. Group 5: Economic Viability of Independent Energy Storage - The economic viability of independent energy storage projects is influenced by peak-valley price differences, capacity compensation, and ancillary service revenues [21]. - Initial calculations indicate that the capital IRR for independent energy storage in regions like Inner Mongolia can reach up to 37.3%, primarily driven by capacity compensation [24]. - The sensitivity of capital IRR to capacity compensation levels and duration is significant, with longer compensation periods enhancing project attractiveness [25].