国泰海通｜煤炭：煤价理性回落，关注全球能源格局下煤炭资产价值重估

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downside risks [1] Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Domestic coal prices have transitioned from an upward trend to a rational decline since November, with the focus on whether winter demand can exceed expectations [1] - As of December 5, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 801 RMB/ton, down 27 RMB/ton (-3.3%) from the previous week [2] - The adjustment of long-term coal contracts for 2026 aims to enhance the upper limit while ensuring compliance rates, which is beneficial for sector valuation [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decrease, with total supply expected to maintain a steady decline throughout the year [2] - The demand side shows significant improvement during the off-season, with Q3 profitability expected to rebound [2] - As of December 5, 2025, the inventory of coking coal at three ports totaled 2.9 million tons, with a utilization rate of 79.18% for coking enterprises with over 200,000 tons [3] Group 3: Global Energy Landscape - The short-term position of coal in the global energy landscape remains strong, with attention drawn to issues such as electricity shortages in the U.S. [1] - The cost of domestic Q5500 coal is 35 RMB/ton lower than that of Australian imported coal, indicating competitive pricing [3] - The price of Australian coking coal increased by 7 USD/ton (3.1%) to 222 USD/ton, highlighting fluctuations in global coal pricing [3]