“申”度解盘 | 布局春季行情

Market Overview - In November 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight adjustment, closing at 3888.60 points, down 1.67% from the end of October 2025. The average daily trading volume in Shanghai was 806.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% month-on-month [5][10]. - The CSI 300 Index remained flat in October, with an average daily trading volume of 463.8 billion yuan, down 26.1% from the previous month [9][10]. Global Economic Influences - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has significantly influenced global capital markets. Following a hawkish statement from Fed Chairman Powell, the probability of a rate cut dropped, leading to market adjustments. However, dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams on November 21 raised the probability of a December cut to nearly 70%, prompting a market recovery [5][11]. Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index rose to 5.74 at the end of October, marking a slight increase and indicating a decrease in investor risk appetite. This increase has occurred for two consecutive months, suggesting a potential phase of adjustment before a spring market rally [6][14]. Market Profitability - In November, the number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% decreased to 218, an 8% decline, indicating a return to a consolidation phase. However, the number of stocks with gains over 50% increased, suggesting that while overall profitability is down, specific sectors may be gaining strength [6][16]. Trading Volume Trends - The average daily trading volume fell for the second consecutive month, reaching 1914.7 billion yuan, a decline of 11.5% from October. This trend aligns with the market's price performance, indicating a typical relationship where volume and price movements are positively correlated [6][18]. Price Movement Analysis - The current market rally has not yet reached the average growth levels seen in previous major uptrends. Historical data shows that the average price increase for stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange during uptrends is approximately 115% over 30 months, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange sees an average increase of 172% over 29 months. The current rally has seen gains of 87% in Shanghai and 118% in Shenzhen since the "924" market [7][20]. Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance in November, breaking below the 60-day moving average and leaving a gap on the daily chart. The previous market high from 2021 has become a significant support level, while the pressure point remains at the November high [8][24]. - The CSI 300 Index also showed clear signs of adjustment in November, breaking below the 60-day moving average and leaving two downward gaps. The primary technical resistance is at the range established during the second half of 2021, with support near the six-month moving average [8][26].