观察| AI不是泡沫，而是野火

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the current AI landscape should not be viewed as a bubble but rather as a transformative force akin to a wildfire that clears out the old to make way for new growth, emphasizing the concept of "creative destruction" [1][4][30]. Group 1: The Nature of AI Wildfire - The AI sector is currently facing an overabundance of low-value applications and models, which are likened to "flammable materials" that will be eliminated in the ongoing transformation [2][6]. - Wildfires in ecology serve as purifiers and catalysts, returning nutrients to the soil and creating space for new growth, paralleling the necessary cleansing of the AI ecosystem [4][18]. Group 2: Different Players in the AI Ecosystem - Three types of players are identified in the AI ecosystem: - "Flammable materials" which are doomed to fail due to lack of real demand and differentiation [6][7]. - "Fire-resistant giants" like Nvidia and Amazon, which possess strong revenue streams and technological advantages, ensuring their survival and growth [9]. - "Budding entities" that emerge from the ashes, such as startups founded by knowledgeable individuals, which can leverage lower costs and resources post-transformation [10][12]. Group 3: Historical Context of Technological Fires - The history of technological innovation is marked by significant "wildfires" that, while destructive, ultimately laid the groundwork for future advancements [13][14]. - The 2000 internet bubble led to a massive investment in fiber optics, which, despite initial overcapacity, became foundational for the digital age [15][16]. - The 2008 financial crisis allowed companies like Apple and Amazon to thrive, utilizing the infrastructure and resources left behind by the previous crisis [17][18]. Group 4: Future of AI and Energy - The current AI "wildfire" is more intense than previous ones, with significant investments in computational infrastructure projected to exceed $480 billion by 2025 [19][22]. - The real challenge lies in energy supply, as AI data centers consume vast amounts of electricity, necessitating investments in sustainable energy infrastructure to support future growth [20][22]. Group 5: Lessons from the Sequoia Tree - The resilience of the sequoia tree serves as a metaphor for the strength needed in the AI sector, emphasizing the importance of building robust foundations to withstand challenges [23][26]. - The article warns against uncontrolled wildfires, which can lead to catastrophic outcomes, highlighting the need for periodic adjustments to prevent larger crises [25][27]. - The distinction between speculative bubbles and beneficial wildfires is made, with the latter fostering innovation and growth in the long term [28][30].