LSEG跟“宗” | 银价急起直追黄金 12月降息后投资市场会如何部署？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver, in light of recent CFTC data and the potential for interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [2][26]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and CFTC Data - Due to the U.S. government shutdown, CFTC data on futures market positions was only updated until October 28, showing a significant increase in both gold and silver net long positions, with gold up 14.7% and silver up 22.4% [2][6]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 80 to 72, marking the lowest level since August 2021, with a cumulative decline of 20.7% this year [2][21]. - The market sentiment is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising to nearly 90% [2][24]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Investors are advised to consider their strategies for the period between potential rate cuts in December and April, as the market anticipates a 50% chance of another cut in April [2][26]. - The article suggests that if Trump were to regain influence over the Federal Reserve, it could lead to further rate cuts, thereby supporting gold prices [26][29]. - The current market dynamics indicate a strong demand for physical gold, which may not be fully reflected in futures market positions, suggesting a potential for price increases [16][30]. Group 3: Performance of Precious Metals - Year-to-date, net long positions in gold futures have decreased by 42%, while silver has seen a 35% increase [7][8]. - Platinum and copper have also shown significant changes, with copper net positions turning positive for the first time this year [10][13]. - The article highlights that the gold price has remained high despite a reduction in long positions, indicating strong physical demand [16][19]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The article notes that the global economic outlook remains uncertain, with expectations of continued inflationary pressures and potential stagflation, which typically favors investments in commodities [29][30]. - The relationship between U.S. interest rates and gold prices is emphasized, suggesting that a decline in rates could lead to higher gold prices, especially if inflation persists [30][32].