狂飙的金价，究竟在定价什么？后市如何布局？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unprecedented rise in gold prices, which have surpassed $4000 per ounce, driven by fundamental shifts in market logic and global economic trends [2][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The first driving force is the wave of de-dollarization, with global central banks increasing their gold reserves, surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in 30 years [4][7]. - The second driving force is the trust crisis brought about by de-globalization, leading to increased demand for "hard currency" like gold as geopolitical uncertainties rise [7][8]. - These trends indicate a fundamental shift in gold's role from a mere safe-haven asset to a hedge against sovereign credit risks [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data shows that since 1971, gold bull markets have lasted an average of 32 months with an average increase of 172%, while the current bull market has lasted 34 months with an increase of 88% [10][11]. - Short-term movements in gold prices will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with any hawkish signals potentially leading to price corrections [12]. - The long-term outlook remains strong due to ongoing de-dollarization and geopolitical tensions, which continue to support gold prices [12][13]. Group 3: Investment Strategies for Individuals - Individuals are advised to avoid large-scale purchases at current high prices and instead consider gradual investments or dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risks [17]. - A reasonable allocation of 5%-10% of household assets to gold is suggested to enhance portfolio resilience without causing significant disruption from price fluctuations [18]. - The focus should be on responding to trends rather than predicting specific price points, as the underlying logic for gold as a sovereign credit hedge remains intact [19].