困境与破局：美联储的“财政囚徒”困境与金银的宏观机遇

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing monetary policy amid persistent inflation and rising debt levels, suggesting a shift towards a "fiscal dominance" scenario that could benefit gold and silver as key investment assets [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Challenges - The expectation of returning to a low interest rate environment is unrealistic, as the structural changes in inflation and labor shortages make the 2% inflation target unattainable [2]. - Even if the Federal Reserve initiates rate cuts, the terminal rate is likely to remain above 3%, indicating a need to adapt to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment [2][3]. Group 2: Fiscal Implications - The U.S. faces significant fiscal challenges with a national debt of $38 trillion, projected to reach $41 trillion, leading to exponentially increasing interest payments that could exceed $1 trillion annually [3]. - If interest rates remain above 3.5%, the cost of debt servicing could consume a substantial portion of fiscal revenue, potentially leading to a debt spiral [3]. Group 3: Potential Policy Responses - Historical precedents suggest that the Federal Reserve may prioritize government credit over strict inflation targets, potentially leading to forced rate cuts even if inflation is not fully under control [3]. - This approach could result in "financial repression," where nominal interest rates are kept artificially low, diluting national debt but risking damage to the dollar's credibility and uncontrolled inflation expectations [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Under the described macroeconomic conditions, gold and silver are positioned not just as traditional safe-haven assets but as essential tools against the devaluation of fiat currency, with a potential target price for gold reaching $10,000 [4].