前瞻美债与美元｜新刊亮相

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of the U.S. debt and the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, highlighting the structural issues within the U.S. economy and the implications for global financial stability [3][5][6]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Structure and Debt - The U.S. economy is experiencing "deindustrialization," with a shift towards a service-oriented structure, leading to a shrinking middle class and increasing social tensions [3]. - As of October 21, 2025, the U.S. federal debt reached $38 trillion, marking the fastest increase in history, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year, accounting for 3.6% of GDP [5]. - The U.S. has been using the dollar as a financial sanction tool, which has deepened the dollar's credit crisis, leading to multiple instances of simultaneous declines in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds since February 2025 [5]. Group 2: Relationship Between Dollar and U.S. Debt - The dollar and U.S. debt support each other; the dollar's dominance allows U.S. debt to be favored by global central banks and financial markets, while U.S. debt facilitates the international circulation of the dollar [6][10]. - The current expansion of U.S. debt is largely unrestrained due to a lack of internal motivation for fiscal discipline and the strong position of the dollar, making it difficult for the international community to impose effective constraints on U.S. debt growth [6]. Group 3: Future of the Dollar and Financial System - The U.S. government's strong support for dollar-pegged stablecoins, as evidenced by the signing of the "Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act," aims to reinforce the dollar's global dominance [7]. - The article emphasizes the need for a re-evaluation of the international monetary system to respect the monetary sovereignty of all countries, advocating for policy coordination among nations to promote a more balanced global financial order [8][10]. - The ongoing evolution towards a diversified international monetary system will involve long-term competition and friction, necessitating careful preparation and strategic planning by countries [8].