“人人都是程序员”的梦该醒了！AI 编程“大逃杀”：Cursor 或成创业公司唯一“幸存者”，“60 分开发者”撑起最后防线

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid rise and subsequent decline of "Vibe Coding," a trend in AI programming tools that gained significant attention in 2023, highlighting the challenges of user retention and the sustainability of such platforms [3][5][12]. User Engagement Trends - User traffic for major products has significantly decreased, with Lovable's traffic dropping from 35 million to under 20 million, a nearly 50% decline. Other products like Bolt.new and Vercel v0 also experienced substantial decreases of 27% and 64% respectively [4][5]. - The CEO of Bolt.new acknowledged high user churn rates across platforms, emphasizing the need for sustainable business models to retain users [5]. Market Dynamics - The initial hype around AI programming tools was driven by capital investment, leading to inflated valuations and user numbers. However, as interest wanes, a return to realistic valuations is anticipated [5][12]. - Lovable, which claimed to have 35 million monthly active users, is criticized for attracting a user base primarily composed of non-developers, such as product managers and students, rather than professional developers [12][19]. Product Differentiation - Two distinct paths in AI coding tools are emerging: "asynchronous agent-based vibe coding" and "human-led serious engineering collaboration." The latter is more likely to gain long-term acceptance from professional developers [10][14]. - Tools like GitHub Copilot and Cursor focus on integrating into existing workflows, providing assistance rather than complete solutions, which may lead to better user retention [10]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the future of Vibe Coding may be limited to niche markets, while more sustainable growth is likely to be found in tools designed for professional users and backed by robust infrastructure [24]. - The concept of "vibe working," where AI organizes data for users without requiring technical knowledge, is identified as a potential area for growth, although it remains uncertain if current companies can pivot successfully to this model [25][27].