本周的美联储决议“剧本”：决议降息，鲍威尔“鹰派讲话”，哈塞特、贝森特“鸽派对冲”？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market is pricing in a 95% probability of a rate cut in December, but the hawkish statements from Powell may no longer hold significant weight as he approaches the end of his term as Fed Chair [1][3] - The new economic team led by Hassett is preparing to implement unconventional monetary policy tools, which may exceed market expectations, including large-scale asset purchases and direct interventions in the yield curve [6][10] - The potential appointment of Hassett as the new Fed Chair is reshaping market expectations regarding monetary policy paths through 2025, necessitating a reassessment of the traditional independence of the Fed and the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [2][10] Group 2 - The market may face a liquidity reversal if it reacts "honestly" to a hawkish rate cut, leading to weaker bonds and stocks, while the dollar strengthens, putting pressure on tech and growth stocks [7] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is under unprecedented pressure as his performance is directly linked to Fed policy, with Trump indicating that Mnuchin's fate is tied to the Fed's direction [9] - Hassett's loyalty and ability to translate Trump's economic rhetoric into coherent policy are highlighted, with potential risks of pushing for aggressive rate cuts that could undermine confidence in the Fed's inflation control [10][11]