【公募基金】静待春季行情，延续均衡配置——基金配置策略报告（2025年12月期）

Market Overview - In November 2025, the equity market experienced an overall decline, while the bond market saw a slight retreat. The A-share market fell, with only large-cap value stocks rising, and sectors like finance and consumer showing relative resilience, while the previously high-performing technology sector faced significant declines [3][7] - The textile, oil and petrochemical, and banking sectors led gains with increases of 3.53%, 3.19%, and 3.16% respectively, while the electronics, automotive, and computer sectors recorded declines of -4.87%, -5.61%, and -5.64% respectively [7] - The bond market faced slight fluctuations due to the failure of interest rate cut expectations and stock market adjustments, leading to redemption pressures on fixed income products [8] Equity Fund Strategy - The current market lacks clear catalysts, and trading sentiment has cooled, with indices facing volatility pressure at high levels. The recommended strategy is to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on emerging technology and high-end equipment manufacturing assets, while also considering cyclical sectors with potential for marginal improvement [3][13] - The focus on artificial intelligence (AI) investments remains strong, with concerns about potential bubbles being countered by robust capital expenditure plans from major tech companies [13] - Cyclical sectors are highlighted for their reasonable valuations and positive outlooks for next year, with potential price volatility expected if demand improves during a rate-cutting cycle [14] Bond Fund Strategy - The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern into December, with year-end profit-taking by institutions and political signals contributing to a cautious market outlook. The strategy suggests waiting for better allocation opportunities while maintaining a controlled duration in bond portfolios [4][20] - The pure bond fund strategy aims to provide stable returns with a focus on risk management, while the fixed income plus strategy seeks to balance steady income with some equity exposure for potential growth [26][27] Fund Performance Review - Since the construction of the active equity fund selection index on May 11, 2023, it has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.4027, outperforming the active equity fund index by 18.62% [16] - The short-term bond fund selection index has a cumulative net value of 1.0451 since its inception on December 12, 2023, with an excess return of 0.5864% over its benchmark [21] - The medium-term bond fund selection index has a cumulative net value of 1.0661, outperforming its benchmark by 0.3465% since its construction [23]