最全合集！九家外资机构12月FOMC前瞻

Group 1 - The FOMC is likely to lower the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75% during the meeting on December 10, due to high downside risks to achieving full employment [2][4][20] - The economic projections are expected to show limited changes, with the median dot plot indicating only one 25 basis point cut in 2026 and one in 2027, while long-term rates are projected to remain at 3.0% [2][11][21] - There is a significant division within the committee, with at least two hawkish votes expected against the rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [6][18][21] Group 2 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is anticipated to emphasize a more hawkish stance in the forward guidance, suggesting that further rate cuts may be paused [4][14][21] - The labor market data, including rising unemployment rates and layoffs, will play a crucial role in determining future rate cuts, with expectations of the unemployment rate exceeding 4.5% by year-end [7][8][19] - The committee may signal a cautious approach to future rate adjustments, with Powell likely to communicate that any further changes will depend on upcoming labor and inflation data [18][21]