月度前瞻 | 经济“量价”回升？

Group 1 - In November, economic activity showed signs of weak improvement, with inventory levels decreasing, which may lead to a more orderly recovery in production [1][7] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, indicating that production constraints from high inventory levels are still present [1][7] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in November, with a faster pace of inventory reduction potentially easing the impact of high inventory on future production [1][7] Group 2 - Domestic demand highlights are seen in investment and service consumption, with the negative impact of debt reduction on investment potentially easing [2][22] - Investment indicators showed a general performance in November, despite a year-on-year decline of approximately 16% in construction and installation investment in October [2][22] - Service consumption is expected to improve due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite pressures from the decline in trade-in programs [2][22] Group 3 - Economic growth pressure remains focused on the manufacturing sector, primarily due to companies accelerating debt repayments, which further constrains investment [3][28] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with November seeing further declines in real estate investment and commodity housing sales [3][42] - The sales area of commodity housing in November fell by 33.1% year-on-year, indicating a significant downturn in the real estate market [3][42] Group 4 - Inflation indicators showed improvement in November, with CPI rising to 0.7% year-on-year, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables and gold [4][57] - The PPI is expected to remain stable, with upstream commodity prices continuing to support it, although the recovery in mid- and downstream prices is slower [4][51] - The overall economic growth in November is projected to be around 4.4%, indicating resilience in growth despite challenges [4][78]