国泰海通｜固收：降息预期下，美债长端承压会持续多久

Group 1 - The core focus of the global bond market last week was on the rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, the surge in Japanese government bond yields to a multi-year high, and the ongoing fiscal risks in Europe [1] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut increased from below 50% in early November to 85%, with Morgan Stanley adjusting its stance and lowering its terminal rate forecast [1] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.94%, the highest level since 2007, while the French sovereign credit spread widened [1] Group 2 - The global bond market saw a general increase in yields, with the U.S. Treasury curve steepening significantly; the 30-year yield rose by 12.8 basis points to 4.79%, while the 1-year yield decreased by 0.7 basis points [1] - European bonds also experienced upward movement, with the UK 20-year yield rising by 14.58 basis points to 5.11% and the German 10-year yield increasing by 10 basis points to 2.86% [1] - The credit spreads narrowed significantly, with the G-spread contracting by 6.2 basis points and the high-yield bond spread narrowing by 13.2 basis points to 2.431% [1] Group 3 - The offshore bond market saw the yields of dim sum bonds and domestic bonds rise in tandem, with the offshore 10-year yield increasing by 1.64 basis points to 1.9095% [2] - The issuance of dim sum bonds totaled 33 issues amounting to 28.031 billion RMB, with financial bonds accounting for 87.2% of the total [2] - The default rate for U.S. leveraged loans decreased to 4.8%, while the high-yield bond default rate rose to 3.3%, driven primarily by defaults in the healthcare sector [2] Group 4 - The global liquidity in the currency market showed structural differentiation, with the U.S. dollar SOFR declining significantly, reflecting the rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] - The Hong Kong dollar HIBOR also saw a substantial decline, with all tenors dropping by over 10 basis points, indicating a seasonal easing of liquidity tension [3] - The overseas bond allocation strategy should focus on medium to long-duration holdings, credit tier selection, and regional rotation [3]