全球长债收益率飙升至16年新高，市场押注全球降息周期即将终结

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising global long-term bond yields, driven by concerns over persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, and the potential end of the monetary easing cycle by major central banks, leading to a "disappointment trade" across developed markets [1][6][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - Global long-term bond yields have returned to their highest levels since 2009, indicating a growing consensus that the era of monetary easing by central banks is nearing its end [3]. - Despite expectations of a third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the bond market has not reacted positively, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching multi-month highs due to investor concerns over long-term inflation and fiscal deficits [3][7]. - The re-evaluation of inflation risks and the global growth outlook under the backdrop of rising public debt and stubborn inflation pressures is shifting market focus away from the previous easing cycle that had driven stock markets to record highs [5][6]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - A "disappointment trade" is emerging as investors realize that major central banks may soon end their rate-cutting cycles, with expectations for the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan shifting towards potential rate hikes [6][9]. - The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure rose to 2.8% in September, nearly one percentage point above its target, complicating the outlook for monetary policy [7]. - Concerns over the U.S. budget deficit, projected at $1.8 trillion, and the independence of the next Federal Reserve chair are contributing to risk premiums in the U.S. Treasury yield curve [7]. Group 3: Fiscal Expansion - The surge in government debt and fiscal expansion plans are significant factors pushing up bond yields globally, with record defense orders in Germany and Japan's largest spending plan since the pandemic contributing to this trend [9]. - Market signals indicate that the pressure on borrowing costs will persist, as governments are expected to adopt more expansionary fiscal stances in the coming year [9].