今夜美联储决议“剧本”：决议降息，鲍威尔“鹰派讲话”，哈塞特、贝森特“鸽派对冲”？

Core Viewpoint - The market is pricing in a 95% probability of a rate cut in December, indicating that the hawkish statements from Fed Chair Powell may no longer hold significant weight as he approaches a "lame duck" status [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - If the market reacts "honestly" to a hawkish rate cut, it could lead to a liquidity reversal where bonds and stocks weaken due to profit-taking, while the dollar strengthens, putting pressure on tech and growth stocks [2][9]. - Conversely, if the market ignores the Fed's hawkish signals and continues to rally, it may be driven by the "Hassett trade," which anticipates a more accommodative policy under the new Fed chair, leading to a steepening yield curve and a renewed economic recovery outlook [9][10]. Group 2: Policy Coordination and Implications - There is a potential underestimation of the degree of dovish coordination among the Treasury, the Fed, and the White House to achieve the "3-3-3 goal" (3% economic growth, 3% short-term yields, and 10-year Treasury yields in the 3% range) through unconventional policy tools [2][3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is under pressure to ensure that the new Fed chair can quickly implement rate cuts, as his own position is closely tied to the Fed's policy direction [10][11]. Group 3: Leadership Changes and Future Outlook - Kevin Hassett is seen as a strong candidate for the new Fed chair, with expectations that he will advocate for lower rates to benefit consumers [11][12]. - The potential for significant reforms at the Fed is highlighted, with calls for changes in the governance structure and the qualifications of regional Fed bank presidents [12].