中金 | 全球光储市场观察1：边际景气度延续，竞争格局加剧

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage industry is experiencing sustained demand growth, as indicated by recent data on battery production, project approvals, and system installations, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector in the short term [4][5]. Demand Side Analysis - In December, global battery production reached 172.59 GWh, with domestic production at 148.84 GWh, indicating strong demand despite the seasonal downturn [4][5]. - China saw a significant increase in energy storage installations, with 3.21 GW/8.82 GWh added in November, a month-on-month increase of 18% [4]. - North America is expected to see a substantial increase in large-scale storage installations, with projected growth of 61% year-on-year, reaching 18 GW in 2025 [4]. - In Europe, major markets like Germany, Italy, and the UK have sufficient approved and under-construction projects to support growth in installations next year [4]. Competitive Landscape - The competition among global energy storage system manufacturers is intensifying, leading to a dilution of market share among top players [5]. - The market concentration ratio (CR5) for large-scale storage systems is projected to decrease from 62% in 2023 to 45% in early 2025, indicating increased competition [5]. - Major manufacturers are expected to see significant growth in shipments in Q4 and next year, driven by high demand and large project backlogs [5]. Pricing Trends - Battery cell prices and energy storage system prices have shown an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased demand [41]. - The price of lithium carbonate has risen by 20% year-to-date, while the price of 314Ah battery cells has increased by approximately 7% [41]. - Despite rising prices, the overall trend in energy storage system pricing has been downward due to competitive pressures and cost reductions [46]. Regional Insights - In the U.S., large-scale storage projects are expected to continue growing, with a cumulative installed capacity of 39 GW by October 2025, and an anticipated addition of 10 GW in the first ten months of the year [19]. - In Europe, the market is shifting from residential storage to large-scale and commercial storage, with expectations of a 36% increase in overall storage installations in 2025 [26]. - Emerging markets are seeing a rise in storage demand driven by policy support and the need for reliable electricity supply, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Latin America [39]. Future Outlook - The energy storage sector is expected to maintain a high level of demand in 2026, supported by ongoing energy transition trends and significant project pipelines in major markets [88]. - The anticipated growth in AI data center projects is likely to further boost storage demand, particularly in North America [88].