没那么“鹰派”的“鹰派降息”，“不是QE”的扩表买债

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the third cut this year, while indicating a potential slowdown in future rate cuts due to internal divisions among policymakers [1][4][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The target range for the federal funds rate has been reduced from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, totaling a 75 basis point cut this year and 175 basis points since September of last year [1][4]. - This decision faced significant dissent, with three votes against it, marking the largest internal disagreement in six years [1][4][3]. - The dot plot indicates that the Fed still expects one more 25 basis point cut next year, suggesting a slower pace of rate cuts compared to this year [1][8]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The CME tool shows an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut this week, with a 71% chance of another cut by June next year, while the probabilities for cuts in January, March, and April are below 50% [1][2]. - The term "hawkish cut" has been used to describe the Fed's current stance, indicating a rate cut with a hint of a pause in future actions [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and the next three years, while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a resilient labor market [12]. - The Fed has also slightly reduced its PCE inflation and core PCE inflation forecasts for the next two years by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence in a slowdown in inflation [13]. Group 4: Short-Term Treasury Purchases - The Fed has announced the initiation of short-term Treasury purchases to maintain sufficient reserves in the banking system, planning to buy $40 billion in short-term debt over the next 30 days [6][7][22]. - This move is aimed at rebuilding liquidity buffers in the money market, especially as year-end market pressures typically arise [6][7].