中金缪延亮：黄金能否替代美元？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving role of gold in the international monetary system, suggesting that while gold is being revalued, it cannot replace the functions of fiat currencies in modern finance. The decline of the dollar's dominance is leading to a fragmented and diversified monetary landscape, with gold serving as a store of value and a hedge against risks, rather than a return to the gold standard [2][3]. Historical Context - Gold was central to the international monetary system during the gold standard era, which facilitated unprecedented global economic prosperity. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar became the dominant currency due to its strong financial market and sovereign credit. However, recent geopolitical events and rising U.S. debt have led to a reassessment of the dollar's safety, prompting a renewed interest in gold [2][4]. Gold's Dual Attributes - Gold possesses both monetary and commodity attributes. Historically, it served as a natural currency due to its physical scarcity. In the modern era, it has transitioned to an alternative asset with strategic reserve, inflation-hedging, and risk-hedging functions. Its unique duality allows it to play a significant role in financial markets and the international monetary system [4][5]. Monetary Properties of Gold - Gold retains its monetary properties, acting as a natural choice for a currency. Its demand is inversely related to the dollar's strength, with gold prices typically rising when the dollar weakens. This relationship underscores gold's role as a hedge against the risks associated with fiat currencies [5][6]. Investment Value of Gold - Despite not yielding interest, gold exhibits investment value due to its historical perception as a valuable asset. Its price is influenced by market consensus rather than intrinsic value, leading to debates about its true worth. The speculative nature of gold investment is highlighted by the "Greater Fool Theory," where investors buy gold based on the belief that others will pay more for it in the future [10][11]. Recent Trends in Gold Pricing - The article notes a decoupling of gold prices from U.S. Treasury yields, particularly since 2022, raising questions about the traditional relationship between gold and real interest rates. Despite rising interest rates, gold prices have increased, suggesting a shift in how gold is valued in the context of a fragmented international monetary system [13][14]. Central Bank Demand for Gold - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have significantly increased their gold reserves as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with fiat currencies. This trend reflects a growing desire to diversify away from traditional reserve currencies, with countries like Russia, China, Turkey, and India leading in gold accumulation [6][18]. Future of the International Monetary System - The article concludes that while there is a nostalgic yearning for a return to the gold standard, the current geopolitical and economic landscape makes such a return impractical. Instead, the international monetary system is likely to evolve towards a more diversified structure, moving away from a singular reliance on the dollar [42][43].